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US shale bosses polled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said they did not expect to significantly increase production over the next two years as a result of the “chaos” caused by the Iran war.
According to the anonymous survey of more than 100 oil and gas companies, 43 per cent of executives said they do not expect daily production to increase by more than 250,000 barrels per day in 2026.
For 2027, 32 per cent of the executives said in the quarterly poll released on Thursday that they expected production to rise more than 250,000 b/d but not more than 500,000 b/d.
The Dallas Fed survey is a closely watched barometer of sentiment among oil industry executives, and its anonymous format often renders an unvarnished view of US energy policy and politics.
This quarter, the survey reflects the apprehension in the US shale industry over quickly expanding production in response to the Iran war, despite attacks in the Gulf and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz hitting global energy supplies.
The industry’s reluctance to commit to production increases comes as US President Donald Trump has extolled US oil and gas output and pushed an “energy dominance” agenda.
The administration has urged executives to increase drilling to increase supply and lower gasoline prices ahead of midterm elections later this year where affordability has emerged as a major issue for voters.
Last week, energy secretary Chris Wright and interior secretary Doug Burgum held a call with oil and gas executives to encourage more production. Yet, despite the administration’s pressure, US oil and gas rig counts have remained flat, in a sign of the sector’s more disciplined approach after previous boom and bust cycles.
In additional comments published along with the survey, one executive said: “With all of the chaos, predicting anything in the energy sector is very difficult.”
Another said that the difference between paper market prices and physical prices “sends conflicting signals to operators who cannot plan rigs and capital budgets when prices swing wildly based on tweets”.
Most executives surveyed said they expect the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal levels by August 2026. About two-thirds of respondents said they expect 90 per cent of trapped Gulf production to return to market eventually.
While current crude prices have risen over $100 a barrel, prices for 2027 and 2028 remain below the threshold producers need to significantly increase output, analysts said.
“Most companies are taking a wait and see or do nothing approach to their 2026 budget,” Dan Pickering, founder of financial services firm Pickering Energy Partners, said in an interview.
“I certainly have a view that we are tightening the market for 2027 and 2028 every day this conflict goes on, but the near-term volatility makes it hard to have any view in the short run.”
Oilfield services provider Halliburton said on Tuesday during its first-quarter results presentation that North America revenue was $2.1bn, a decrease of 4 per cent from the same period last year.
Chief executive Jeff Miller said on an earnings call that some activity was picking up as smaller producers moved to capitalise on higher crude prices, but that producers have yet to add rigs.
“We’re in the early innings,” said Miller. “The early movers are the smaller companies,” he said, adding: “The timing of big operators . . . is less clear today.”