Nigeria’s agricultural sector remains a critical driver of economic growth, employment, and food security. The 2025 agriculture budgets across states reveal stark disparities in investment priorities, reflecting varying levels of commitment to the sector. While some states are making substantial allocations to boost production, others appear to be deprioritising agriculture despite its role in poverty reduction and economic diversification.
At the top, Niger State leads with an unprecedented ₦460.11 billion allocation—more than four times that of the second-highest spender, Kebbi (₦103.07 billion). Meanwhile, states like Anambra (₦3.58 billion) and Kwara (₦5.65 billion) allocate minimal funds, raising questions about their agricultural strategies.
This analysis breaks down the trends by geopolitical zone, examining the economic implications, potential drivers of spending, and what these allocations mean for Nigeria’s food security and rural development.
North-Central: Heavy investment in Niger, weak commitments elsewhere
The North-Central zone is dominated by Niger State’s colossal ₦460.11 billion budget—an outlier that skews the region’s total. This suggests a major agricultural transformation agenda, possibly linked to large-scale irrigation projects, mechanisation, or agro-processing investments.
However, other states in the region lag:
· Benue (₦33.8 billion), traditionally the “Food Basket of the Nation,” has a surprisingly modest budget.
· Plateau (₦20.82 billion) and Nasarawa (₦24.54 billion) show moderate commitments.
· Kogi (₦15.24 billion) and Kwara (₦5.65 billion) are concerningly low, despite their agro-potential.
Insight: Niger’s spending may indicate federal partnership projects or a shift toward commercial agriculture. However, if other states underinvest, regional food supply chains could remain unbalanced.
North-West: Strong but uneven allocations
The North-West, Nigeria’s agricultural powerhouse, shows mixed trends:
· Kebbi (₦103.07 billion) leads, reinforcing its status as a major rice producer.
· Katsina (₦81.64 billion), Kaduna (₦74.02 billion), and Jigawa (₦69.45 billion) follow closely, likely focusing on staples like wheat, maize, and irrigation schemes.
· Zamfara (₦34.72 billion) and Sokoto (₦26.99 billion) are mid-range, while Kano (₦22.95 billion) is shockingly low given its population and agribusiness potential.
Insight: Security challenges in the North-West may be influencing spending—higher allocations could be for farmer support programs amid banditry. Kano’s low budget is puzzling and may reflect a shift toward commerce over agriculture.
North-East: Low spending despite food insecurity risks
The North-East, still recovering from insurgency, has the weakest budgets:
· Borno (₦28.43 billion) and Taraba (₦24.17 billion) are the highest, but still modest.
· Yobe (₦17.3 billion), Adamawa (₦15.57 billion), Gombe (₦12.79 billion), and Bauchi (₦11.29 billion) are concerningly low.
Insight: Given the region’s vulnerability to food shortages, these allocations may be insufficient to rebuild agriculture post-conflict. More focus on resilience programs (drought-resistant crops, livestock support) is needed.
South-East: Enugu leads, others lag behind
The South-East shows a clear divide:
· Enugu (₦82.34 billion) is the third-highest nationally, possibly investing in agro-industry and export crops.
· Imo (₦50.44 billion) and Abia (₦34.19 billion) show moderate commitments.
· Ebonyi (₦6.57 billion) and Anambra (₦3.58 billion) are shockingly low, despite their potential in rice and cassava.
Insight: Enugu’s high budget may be tied to infrastructure (e.g., agro-processing zones), while Anambra’s neglect of agriculture could push more people into trading, worsening food dependency.
South-West: Lagos prioritises agriculture despite urban focus
The South-West presents an interesting case:
· Lagos (₦79.67 billion) allocates more than expected, likely for urban farming, aquaculture, and food logistics.
· Ogun (₦54.48 billion) and Ondo (₦26.27 billion) follow, with focus on cocoa and oil palm.
· Ekiti (₦23.78 billion), Oyo (₦14.56 billion), and Osun (₦7.16 billion) trail behind.
Insight: Lagos’s spending may aim to reduce reliance on food imports, while Oyo’s low budget is surprising given its arable land.
South-South: Edo leads, oil states lag
The South-South shows varied priorities:
· Edo (₦56.93 billion) leads, likely for oil palm and cassava initiatives.
· Akwa Ibom (₦41.1 billion) and Rivers (₦31.81 billion) have mid-range budgets.
· Bayelsa (₦17.25 billion), Cross River (₦12.98 billion), and Delta (₦9.43 billion) are disappointingly low.
Insight: Oil-dependent states may be neglecting agriculture despite its potential to diversify their economies.
Economic implications & key takeaways
1. Niger State’s outlier budget suggests either a transformative agenda or possible misallocation—scrutiny is needed.
2. The North-West remains critical for national food security, but security risks may hinder returns on spending.
3. The South-East and South-South show uneven commitments, with some states risking food import dependency.
4. Lagos’s high budget signals a shift toward urban and tech-driven agriculture.
5. Low-spending states (Anambra, Kwara, Kano, Osun, Delta) may face long-term productivity declines unless they reprioritise agriculture.
Conclusion
While some states are making bold agricultural investments, others risk falling behind. If Nigeria is to achieve food self-sufficiency and agro-export growth, more balanced and strategic spending across all regions is essential. The 2025 budgets reveal both promise and peril—only time will tell if these allocations translate into tangible growth.
Dr Oluyemi Adeosun is BusinessDay’s Chief Economist.
