At its most recent National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) resolved to zone the presidency to the South, reversing a previous decision that contributed to its loss in the 2023 presidential election. PHILIP IBITOYE examines whether returning to the zoning arrangement can help the party regain power in 2027.
The 2027 general election may be at least 18 months away, but preparations are already underway by various political parties, including the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), to put their best foot forward. At its 102nd NEC meeting at the party’s national headquarters in Abuja last week, the PDP reverted to its foundational zoning arrangement for party and public elective offices, including the presidency.
When the party was founded in 1998, Nigeria had just emerged from decades of military rule punctuated by political upheavals, including the annulment of the June 12, 1993 election. To heal old wounds and provide a workable political order, the PDP’s founders—statesmen such as Alex Ekwueme, Solomon Lar, Atiku Abubakar, and Abubakar—crafted a delicate formula: power rotation between North and South, otherwise known as zoning.
It was a strategy designed to guarantee inclusion, manage Nigeria’s deep ethnic and regional divides, and prevent one region from dominating power. This arrangement would become the PDP’s trademark, anchoring its dominance through four presidential election victories between 1999 and 2011. But by 2023, zoning had become the party’s Achilles’ heel, fracturing it and fuelling the crisis that helped hand victory to the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Now, with the PDP’s NEC reverting to zoning and reportedly throwing its 2027 presidential ticket to the South, the party faces a familiar question: is zoning still the glue that can bind the PDP, or has it become a tired compromise that papers over deeper fissures?
The trajectory of PDP’s zoning arrangement
From inception, the PDP branded itself the “largest party in Africa.” It was no empty boast. Its founders were not only political heavyweights but also men with broad nationalist credentials.
Former Vice-President Ekwueme, who chaired the 1998 G-34 that stood up to Abacha, was central to its ideological direction. Solomon Lar, a former governor, became the party’s first national chairman. The PDP embodied elite consensus, uniting northern conservatives and southern progressives under one umbrella.
At its heart was zoning: a mechanism of elite bargaining that ensured no region would feel shut out of power. This principle was enshrined in the PDP constitution in Preamble (7)(3)(c), which states: Adhering to the policy of the rotation and zoning of Party and Public elective offices in pursuance of the principle of equity, justice and fairness.
In 1999, with the memory of June 12 still raw, the ticket was zoned to the South-West. Olusegun Obasanjo emerged as the candidate, providing symbolic redress for the annulment that denied Yoruba businessman Moshood Kashimawo Olawale (MKO) Abiola his widely believed mandate.
This power-sharing principle gave predictability to succession battles. After Obasanjo’s eight years, the ticket shifted North. Umaru Musa Yar’Adua emerged in 2007. When Yar’Adua died in office in 2010, Goodluck Jonathan, a southerner, succeeded him—a development that later strained the zoning agreement.
Jonathan’s decision to run in 2011 did not go down well with the Northern establishment who insisted that the North was entitled to complete Yar’Adua’s eight-year term. But Jonathan also gained the support of some powerful interest like Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, who felt that he should run for the office.
The contest was fierce but he overcame all the political obstacles. Though Jonathan won, the fallout sowed seeds of discord that never fully healed. By 2015, the North rallied behind Muhammadu Buhari under the APC, while the PDP splintered, with defectors fuelling the opposition’s rise.
Fast forward to the 2023 elections: the zoning debate returned with ferocity. Many argued that, having had Buhari (a Northerner) serve eight years, it was only fair for power to shift South. But the PDP abandoned zoning and seemingly violated its own constitution altogether, throwing the ticket open. This decision paved the way for Atiku Abubakar, a northern heavyweight, to clinch the candidacy once again.
The fallout was immediate. Five governors—the so-called G5 led by Rivers’ Nyesom Wike—rebelled, demanding that the national chairmanship (held by another northerner, Iyorchia Ayu) be relinquished in the spirit of balance. When the party refused, the G5 fractured the PDP’s electoral base, undermining Atiku’s chances. The result was a bitter loss that has left the PDP in opposition for a third consecutive cycle.
Since its defeat in 2023, the party has tried to stabilise as a viable opposition, but in recent months, its ranks have been depleted by defections of several lawmakers and governors in Akwa Ibom and Delta States to the ruling APC.
The PDP’s efforts to remain the main opposition party also came under threat after some opposition bigwigs, including its 2023 candidate, Atiku, and founding member David Mark, unveiled the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as their vehicle to take on the APC. Atiku subsequently resigned from the PDP, saying the party had diverged from “the foundational principles we stood for.” Some other big shots of the party have also toed the defection line, citing the bitter war of supremacy some leaders of the party are waging as reason for abandoning the PDP ship.
PDP leaders express optimism for 2027, but political observers advise caution
Despite the wave of defections, PDP leaders continue to express strong optimism about the party’s future, insisting it is more united than ever and ready to win back power in 2027. That optimism is fuelled by the party’s most recent NEC meeting, where it zoned the national chairmanship to the North and the presidency to the South in the name of fairness.
In an interview with Sunday Tribune, the PDP National Vice-Chairman (South-West), Kamoru Toyese Ajisafe, said the silence of some disenchanted members in recent days was an indication that the party is on the right path after its NEC meeting.
“In the last 96 hours or thereabouts, they are not as loose as they normally be. Everybody is like we are watching our utterances; our actions and inactions, because you can see that there is a new PDP. You don’t have to be a party man. You see the way we conducted ourselves at the last NEC meeting shows that we have the mechanism to resolve our differences,” Ajisafe said.
Another PDP leader and former National Vice-Chairman (South-West), Dr Eddy Olafeso, told Sunday Tribune that the party is in full unity mode ahead of its National Convention in Ibadan on 15–16 November 2025. “It [the convention] will unite the party beyond expectations. We are ready, we are moving forward, and we are confident it will strengthen us,” he said.
Both PDP leaders rejected suggestions that some party figures were sidelined in 2023, insisting the decision to throw the ticket open was unanimous. “Nobody felt sidelined. It was a majority decision. Just because what you felt would happen did not happen, you become sidelined. No, that’s not being sidelined. Nobody argued about the decision at the time. It was a unanimous decision [to not zone the presidential ticket] at NEC,” Olafeso said.
Nevertheless, political analysts argue that the PDP’s crisis goes beyond zoning. They cite a lack of party ideology, weak conflict resolution mechanisms, and a sense of injustice as persistent challenges. Without addressing these, they warn, zoning alone may not be enough to win back the presidency the PDP lost in 2015 after 16 years in power.
“There were deeper cracks and structural deficiencies in the party beyond zoning, and one cannot erase these issues from the failure the party witnessed in the 2015 general election, especially the presidential poll. The failure back then came from PDP stalwarts and public officeholders who jumped ship to the APC and then returned to the PDP later on. However, the ones who stayed back like Wike felt hard done by when Atiku, the person who left the party, came back to take its presidential ticket twice,” political analyst Olawale Afolabi said in an interview.
Afolabi pointed to a lack of consistent ideology and weak internal conflict resolution as lingering threats to the PDP’s ambitions.
For his part, Mubarak Jamiu of the Political Science Department, Kwara State University (KWASU), argued that the PDP’s decision to zone the 2027 presidential ticket to the South was a mistake and a “ticking time bomb.” “The party is way stronger in the North and has a greater chance in the North than the South,” he said.
Jamiu, however, acknowledged that potential PDP candidates such as former President Goodluck Jonathan and Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde may present a formidable challenge against President Tinubu in the forthcoming race.
Can zoning fix the PDP in 2027?
After zoning the 2027 presidential ticket to the South, speculations have been rife over those who may throw their hats into the ring. The most notable name in the public is former President Jonathan, who is still constitutionally allowed to be president for four more years.
While he rejected lobbying by some Northern politicians to be the APC candidate in the build-up to the 2023 presidential poll, it is still an open question whether he would reject similar lobbying efforts this cycle. Some reports had indicated that some party leaders favour Jonathan because he can only stay in office for four years so that power can return to the North in 2031.
When asked by Sunday Tribune whether PDP leaders are pushing for Jonathan to become the party’s presidential candidate in 2027, Ajisafe, a member of the party’s National Working Committee (NWC), refused to confirm the reports.
“At this present moment, people are going about their personal opinions and conjecture and what have you. But, we members of the National Working Committee, we have not zeroed in our mind or position on a particular candidate. It’s still an open contest,” the party’s vice-chairman in the South-West said.
Another name in the mix is that of the Oyo governor, a G5 member, who a few months ago opened the door to a potential run for president. Appearing on a Channels Television programme, Politics Today, in April, Makinde said he had the ability to run the country. However, he suggested that any decision would be based on various factors. “But is it [running for president] what I want to do right now? Is it what Nigerians are asking for? Is it what my party will say we should do? I don’t know. We still have a long time to go,” he said.
At the PDP’s NEC meeting last Monday, there were several banners at the party’s secretariat bearing “Seyi Makinde for President 2027,” indicating some party insiders want the Oyo governor to run. Fuelling the idea, Bauchi State Governor, Bala Mohammed, suggested he would like to be Makinde’s running mate. Appearing on the same Channels TV programme on Thursday after the PDP zoned the presidential ticket to the South, Mohammed said: “Seyi Makinde-Mohammed ticket can match even better. Because to me, it depends on what Nigerians want,” he said.
However, Makinde may need to commit to serving only four years in office if he wants the support of some party leaders in the South and the North. If the Oyo governor does not make a one-term commitment, he may even lose the support of his party’s vice-chairman in the South-West, who told Sunday Tribune that he would not support any candidate who would seek a second term in 2031. “I won’t support a second term for a president coming from the PDP. I won’t support, I’m saying it freely. I’m going to work against such a president,” Ajisafe said, adding that power should return to the North in 2031.
As the PDP gears up for the battle over the 2027 presidential ticket, more names are expected to emerge over the next weeks and months. Some PDP leaders already said former members such as the party’s 2019 vice-presidential candidate, Peter Obi, are welcome to return to the party. Obi, who quit the party in 2022 and ran for president in 2023 under the platform of the Labour Party (LP), may also contest for the ticket, but the National Coordinator of the Obidient Movement, Obi’s supporters’ group, Tanko Yunusa, said the former Anambra governor would need time to decide whether the PDP is the ideal platform to pursue his 2027 presidential ambition. Given Obi’s previous pledge to serve one term as president, many party leaders from the South and North may be amenable to his candidacy.
Meanwhile, there are no indications that Wike, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in Tinubu’s government, would vie for the PDP presidential ticket after he finished as a runner-up in the 2022 presidential primary election. In June, the former Rivers governor declared his support for the president’s re-election bid, essentially closing the door on challenging his current boss. “I will support Asiwaju [Tinubu],” he told journalists during a media chat in Abuja.
But Wike said the PDP’s decision to now zone the presidency to the South is an acknowledgement of the “mistake” it made in the 2023 cycle. “They have realised the mistake they made in 2022 and are correcting it in 2025. But is it not too late already?” Wike queried, echoing some political observers who believe zoning the presidency will not save the PDP in 2027.
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