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UK motorists are set to face £2 a litre diesel prices within days after wholesale prices surged to a four-year high, adding to a cost of living crisis that has been reignited by the war in Iran.
Alan Gelder, an oil products expert at Wood Mackenzie, said diesel prices at the pump were expected to surpass £2 a litre within a week after European diesel futures reached the equivalent of $211 a barrel, almost double the price of crude oil.
The loss of supplies from the Middle East has driven up oil prices across the world but diesel had some of the most rapid gains, with the world’s buyers jockeying for the remaining supplies.
Middle Eastern refiners have become more significant to European diesel supplies in recent years after restrictions were placed on purchases from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine.
“Every day that passes the oil market gets tighter so prices continue to climb,” Gelder said. “Diesel prices could well go much higher.”
Already, UK motorists saw the highest monthly rise in prices for diesel and petrol on record in March, according to figures compiled by RAC.
The cost of unleaded petrol at the pump rose 20p a litre and more than 40p for diesel last month. Diesel is selling for an average of £1.85 a litre, according to RAC data.
“Fuel prices have never risen this fast in a single month,” RAC head of policy Simon Williams said. “The increases drivers have had to endure in March 2026 far exceed those seen in the early days of the war in Ukraine.”
The Iranian threat to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to prevent most oil from the Gulf reaching global markets and stockpiles are being eroded as countries dip into commercial and strategic reserves.
The UK imports only about a tenth of its diesel directly from the Middle East, but about 40 per cent of the UK’s diesel comes from Dutch and Belgian refineries, which get a significant portion of their crude from the Middle East.
The price of diesel cargoes in Asia has increased faster than in Europe, as buyers compete for limited supplies.
At least six Europe-bound ships carrying cargoes of US diesel rerouted to Asia since the war began, according to Kpler, with Asian buyers paying more because of their normal dependence on Middle Eastern supplies.
“The magnitude of the problem is so much bigger in the East,” said Philip Jones-Lux, senior analyst at Sparta Commodities.
“We’ve even seen a few cargoes loading out of Europe and heading towards Singapore — Europe is itself short of diesel and should be importing, but the prices are screaming right now that Asia needs it so much more.”
The UK government has privately sought to calm fears about potential supply shortages. Rising fuel prices and their impact on inflation are a threat to Keir Starmer’s government that was already struggling to contain cost of living pressures.
But energy traders and fuel suppliers have warned petrol stations and refineries could run down their stockpiles of diesel by mid-May if the conflict in Iran is not resolved.
Higher diesel prices feed through rapidly into inflation as most goods in the UK are transported by diesel-powered trucks.
While countries across Europe face similar pressures the problem facing the UK is acute, said Benedict George, head of refined products at Argus Media, arguing the country’s diesel stocks were lower than other European countries.
“The UK looks the most vulnerable,” he said.
The UK’s haulage drivers, who rely on diesel, have pressed the government to come up with a “clear plan on how it will protect diesel for the supply chain”.
The Road Haulage Association noted some members had said they were experiencing delays to diesel deliveries.
The Easter weekend is expected to be the busiest on the roads for four years, with nearly 21mn leisure journeys planned, the RAC said, putting further pressure on retail fuel stocks.
Additional reporting by Ashley Armstrong in London