By Dele Sobowale
Ask anybody, including the best educated and most erudite, about the Nigerian economy, and the response will probably be subjective summary based on personal and political bias long ingrained. Members of political parties have made up their minds in advance of any event regarding the economy. For some, President Tinubu can do no wrong; for others, he can do nothing right. That leaves those of us who are neither Tinubu haters or supporters to provide a balanced assessment.
WHY EXPERTS DISAGREE
“ECONOMY: Experts disagree with FG on performance.”
VANGUARD, November 15, 2025.
VANGUARD’s headline news item on that day was not surprising – especially if you are familiar with the experts interviewed. Most of them have established track records which make their submissions predictable. Put another way, they represent constituencies – which expect them to take certain positions. And, they do.
Consequently, each commentator had focused on the aspect of the economy which affects the interests of the group they represent. The summaries provided by VANGUARD illustrate the point.
• Nigeria’s economic improvement largely on paper. ActionAid
• Stability not enough, we are in very embarrassing situation. – Kpakol
• Nigeria still in debt trap; economy has not turned the corner — Adonri, Financial Analyst.
• Economy looks healthier in charts than it feels in households – Egbomeade
• Economic Reforms: We’re on the right path – Muda Yusuf
The question now is: who is right and who is wrong? The answer , surprisingly is: nobody is wrong; everybody is right – depending on which aspect of the economy you choose to address. Because his view represents a minority position, which is mostly bullish on Tinubu’s reforms, permit me to start with Muda Yusuf, who declared as follows: “We are seeing very significant stability in the exchange rates and even on top of that we have been seeing a marginal appreciation of the currency.
We are also seeing a deceleration in the inflation rates, even with discounts for the fact of adjustments of the base year, the base effects.”
There is also evidence that even food prices are coming down…”
Tajudeen Olayinka, Investment Banker & Stockbroker, “said the reform policies are not only credible, but were needed to reset the economy and put it on the path to growth and development.”
Interestingly, the critics, exemplified by Clifford Egbomeade, a public policy analyst, apart from the statement attributed to him above, also had this to say. “In truth, the reforms are credible, but not yet effective. To make progress tangible, the government must now focus on translating macro gains into livelihoods.”
Dr Amase Justin, former spokesman for the Nigerian Economic Society, NES, partly agreeing with Egbomeade about the failure of the reform programme to improve on the lives of most Nigerians summarized the economic situation by saying that “Reforms full of paradoxes, gains yet to translate to citizen’s welfare.”
Even ActionAid, which was the most dismissive of the lot, was still on record for declaring that: “The reality is more complex: the reforms are directionally right, but remain uneven, poorly sequenced and insufficiently inclusive.”
Readers, who are not economists, can be forgiven if they don’t know what to make of the seeming disagreement between experts. Perhaps, the following will help to shed some light on the discussion. In reality, there is no dispute about facts. Two stories, one very familiar, will help to illustrate the points being made here.
THREE BLIND MEN , THE ELEPHANT AND ECONOMIC EXPERTS
“Where you stand determines what you see.”
Most of us have heard about the three blind men touching an elephant . The first one touched one of the legs; the second, touched one ear; and the third grabbed the tail. An elephant was described as a big tree by the first; a fluffy blanket by the second and a long rope by the third. To some extent, they were all correct. Just as an elephant is a complex animal, not easily captured in a brief sentence, a national economy is even usually more complicated to be reduced to a few sentences. My fellow experts have done their best – given the enormity of the challenges pertaining to economic performance assessment.
However, it might be helpful if we examine the situation from two general perspectives.
“Governments are best classified by considering who are the “somebodies” they are endeavoring to satisfy”. Alfred North Whitehead, 1861-1947.
“Every economic reform produces its sets of losers and winners.”
To some extent, Whitehead’s observation and the second, point in the same direction. To properly appraise the government’s performance, one must first ask the question: who was supposed to benefit most?”
Some of the harshest critics of government concede that Gross Domestic Product, GDP, growth, at over 4 per cent, is the highest in ten years; that exchange rate has stabilized around N1500/US$; that food price inflation in particular and inflation in general has decelerated; and, businesses can once again engage in long-term planning. All these are positive signs of economic recovery.
Even the most positive analyst would also admit that the encouraging statistics have resulted in three noticeable facts, which should not be denied. First, the benefits of reform have not reached the grassroots; that the poor and middle class are being steadily more impoverished. Second, virtually all the benefits of the reforms have so far accrued to the wealthy and the political class. Income disparity has become wider; the rich, less than one per cent of the population, have become richer and the rest have become poorer. The middle class and the poor, who provided the votes to elect governments, are left to read how richer the powerful have become; how many trillions banks have raked in since reforms started. They are certainly entitled to ask: “what is in the reforms for us?”
Even, the sharp drop in food prices, currently experienced, is a two-edged sword. Largely based on food imports flooding Nigeria once again, it has masked the underlying decline in aggregate domestic output, except for a few food items. The drop in prices is partly explained by the slumping purchasing power of consumers. Consequently, most Nigerian farmers will suffer massive losses this year – raising fears that aggregate food productivity might be in jeopardy next year.
Obviously, the powerful elite are the gainers and the masses are losing – at least now.
ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM – RISING DEBT
“FG exceeds 2025 borrowing target by 55.6%…expected to hit 80%by year end.
VANGUARD, November 10, 2025.
The Federal Government is its own worst critic. Tinubu announced that the year’s revenue target had been achieved in October; at the same time the FG was taking another loan and exceeding deficit projections. Weekend Trust, November 8,9, 2025, asked: “where is the money?” A yawning credibility gap has developed – which only the government can close.
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