…Country needs structural reform, policy discipline not temporary fixes
Despite a modest drop in food inflation, the sighs of relief among Nigerian households and farmers remain fragile. Across the country’s food belts, tonnes of produce rot before reaching the market, while cheaper smuggled goods from neighbouring countries flood local stores.
With poor storage systems, weak logistics, and persistent smuggling undermining homegrown production, experts say Nigeria’s road to food security is still long and uncertain.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports that food inflation fell two consecutive months from 22.74 percent in July to 16.87 percent in September 2025, thanks to lower average prices of staples such as maize, garri, beans, millet, potatoes, onions, eggs, and tomatoes.
For many Nigerians, the slowdown brings a glimmer of relief. Yet, behind these numbers lies a troubling paradox: food prices may be easing, but hunger persists.
As the world marked World Food Day on Thursday, Nigeria ranked 115th out of 123 countries in the 2025 Global Hunger Index (GHI), with a score of 32.8, indicating a serious level of hunger.
Experts say that while short-term factors may explain the dip in food prices, deep structural challenges, smuggling, poor storage facilities, and logistics failures, continue to undermine local food production and keep millions food insecure.
Read also: FG attributes drop in food prices to boost in local production
Smuggling: The silent market disruptor
According to Abiodun Olorundero, managing partner at Prasino Farms, the recent drop in food inflation has less to do with improved productivity and more to do with increased importation and smuggling.
“The reason for the drop in food inflation may be due to increased importation of certain foods like grains, and this is also the period of harvest across different regions,” he explained.
“But there’s a lot of smuggling going on along the land borders, these activities are often in connivance with Customs officers,” he alleged.
Olorundero said a 50kg bag of rice recently sold for about N45,000 in the border communities, as smugglers took advantage of weak border enforcement and the high demand for cheaper alternatives.
“When smuggled goods flood the market, local farmers can’t compete,” he added. “It discourages production and makes food security harder to achieve.”
Ibrahim Kabiru, president of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN), echoed similar concerns.
“Smuggling affects internal pricing and the elasticity of demand,” he said. “Countries that fail to apply strict measures against it end up hurting their domestic producers. It’s one of the major factors distorting our market.”
Ade Adefeko, director, Corporate & Regulatory Affairs, OLAM Agri, said that smuggling, lack of storage facility and logistics challenges have continued to negatively impact Nigeria’s quest to achieve food security.
Adefako said that as long as smuggling remained unchecked, local producers would remain uncompetitive.
“You become uncompetitive if you allow your local producers languish while smuggled produce flood the market,” he said.
He also noted that no nation can become self-sufficient and food secured through smuggled food. He added that lack of storage facilities has also continued to deal a deadly blow on the efforts of local farmers whose produce rots away on a consistent basis.
Read also: Food inflation drops to 16.87% in September on maize, grains decline
Storage gaps: When abundance turns to waste
While smuggling eats into farmers’ profits, poor storage facilities wipe out much of what they produce. Nigeria produces an estimated 55 million metric tonnes of food annually, but about 40 percent is lost due to financing gaps, poor logistics, and weak cold-chain infrastructure, according to the Organisation for Technology Advancement of Cold Chain in West Africa (OTACCWA).
The organisation said that Nigeria needed 5,000 cold trucks and 100 cold rooms, each with a capacity of 500 tonnes, to tackle its N3.5 trillion annual post-harvest losses.
Olorundero, earlier quoted, confirmed that the lack of accessible storage and processing facilities near farmlands remains a serious bottleneck.
“There are no storage facilities close to farmers. Most of our produce depends on rain-fed farming, so during the harvest season there’s an oversupply,” he explained. “Without storage or processing factories, much of it gets wasted.”
Kabiru added that the shortage of cold storage is especially dangerous for perishable crops. “Cold storage challenges constitute a major threat to achieving food sufficiency,” he said. “Post-harvest losses are an anathema to food security.”
For many smallholder farmers, this loss is not just economic, it’s emotional. After months of hard labour, watching fresh produce rot because of poor infrastructure can be devastating.
Logistics: The costly journey from farm to market
If the food survives smuggling and spoilage, it still has to travel on bad roads. The cost of transporting food from rural areas to markets has skyrocketed due to the price of diesel, which is now over N1,000 per litre.
“Transport and logistics costs are a major factor in food insecurity,” Olorundero said. “Most trucks moving food items rely on diesel. Add multiple interstate levies, tout extortion, and harassment from security agencies, the cost keeps rising. Eventually, these costs are pushed to the consumers.”
Kabiru noted that the distance between production and consumption centres also drives up prices. “The cost of food distribution is very high because production areas are far from utilisation centres,” he said. “Middlemen add logistics costs and their margins, making food unaffordable for many Nigerians.”
Nigeria’s weak transport infrastructure, poor rural road networks, and lack of an efficient rail system make logistics a nightmare.
“The rail system is a cheaper way to move large quantities of food,” Olorundero suggested. “There must be interconnectivity across regions so that food can move efficiently and cheaply.”
What must change
The experts agree that Nigeria’s path to food security lies in structural reform and policy discipline rather than temporary fixes.
According to Olorundero, “Food security is achievable in any society that takes food safety seriously. States must take the lead and not leave everything to the federal government. Each region should focus on the crops where it has a competitive advantage.”
He also called for the revival of agricultural research institutes, stronger support for mechanised farming, and training for extension officers who can help farmers adopt best practices.
Kabiru, on the other hand, believes Nigeria’s problem is not the absence of good policies but the failure to implement them. “We can achieve food security if we implement all our lofty policies transparently and with zero tolerance for corruption and ineptitude,” he said. “Mr President must walk his talk by ensuring every policy is judiciously implemented.”
Adefako on his part called on relevant authorities to ensure that the high level of smuggling across the nation’s borders is checked. He also urged the Federal Government to off-take the produce from big producers and store in its warehouses across the country.
“I can only make recommendations; I can’t on my own stop smuggling. There are relevant authorities that are charged to police the borders. But I must say emphatically that smuggling of cheap rice and other items is not healthy and not an encouragement to local farmers,” he said.
