The recent wave of demolition exercises across Lagos waterfront and inland communities has intensified public anger toward the state government and sharpened perceptions of a widening class divide, according to a new sentiment and field report that assessed citizen reactions to the January clearances in Makoko, Oworonshoki and adjoining areas.
The report by SB Morgen, titled: ‘A report on the sentiment following the Makoko Demolitions,’ combines on-the-ground surveys of affected residents with a digital analysis of public discourse.
The report, based on a structured ground survey of 100 residents in affected communities and a digital sentiment analysis of roughly 1,000 public voices, found that 82 percent of discourse surrounding the demolitions was negative, reflecting what it described as a “broad-based collapse of trust” rather than routine opposition to urban planning. Only 13 percent of recorded responses supported the government’s safety-driven justification for the exercise, while five percent were neutral.
The study revealed that opposition to the demolitions is not driven by a blanket rejection of urban planning, but by what residents and commentators see as selective enforcement, broken agreements and a development agenda that prioritises elite interests over social welfare.
Public sentiment following the demolitions was overwhelmingly negative, with more than four-fifths of recorded responses expressing anger, distrust or outright hostility toward the government’s actions.
Central to the backlash is what the report describes as a perceived “breach of contract’ between residents and the state. While the government justified the demolitions on safety grounds, particularly the need to maintain setbacks from high-tension power lines, many residents insist they were told to observe a 30-metre clearance, only for demolition teams to enforce boundaries that extended far beyond that limit.
The report notes that this discrepancy has become a defining symbol of bad faith, eroding the credibility of official explanations and fuelling the belief that the rules were deliberately altered mid-operation.
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As the demolitions unfolded, public anger escalated into moral outrage following allegations of excessive force, including the reported use of tear gas in residential areas with fatal consequences for infants.
The report identifies this moment as a turning point in public sentiment, shifting the narrative from planning enforcement to state brutality. In both field interviews and online discourse, the demolitions began to be framed as punitive and inhumane, rather than corrective or safety-driven.
Beyond the immediate humanitarian impact, the report situates the demolitions within a broader political economy of urban development in Lagos. A dominant theme emerging from the data is the perception that cleared waterfronts and informal settlements are being sacrificed to make way for high-value real estate and prestige projects under the city’s “Mega City” vision.
According to the report, an overwhelming majority of surveyed residents interpret the demolitions as a land grab rather than a safety intervention, reinforcing the belief that urban planning laws are applied unevenly, strictly against poorer communities and leniently in affluent districts.
The government’s counter-narratives have struggled to gain traction. While official statements emphasised public safety and accused some civil society organisations of exploiting the situation, the report finds that these explanations resonated with only a small minority of respondents.
Most affected residents defended the role of non-governmental organisations, viewing them as their primary channel for representation and support amid what they see as institutional abandonment.
Significantly, the report observes that dissatisfaction with the demolitions has not been confined to informal settlements alone. Expressions of solidarity from middle-class neighbourhoods, including parts of Lekki and other coastal areas, suggest growing unease about arbitrary enforcement and fears that future infrastructure projects could expose broader segments of the population to displacement.
This cross-class resonance, the report notes, has amplified the political sensitivity of the demolitions and reframed them as a citywide governance issue.
The cumulative effect, according to the report, is a severe erosion of trust between citizens and the Lagos State Government. A large majority of surveyed residents said they had lost faith in formal justice and administrative processes, a development the report warns could undermine future urban renewal efforts and deepen social fragmentation in Africa’s largest city.
The report concludes that restoring public confidence will require more than official rebuttals. It calls for transparent, independent verification of demolition boundaries, a credible compensation and resettlement framework, and a demonstrably equitable application of planning laws across all socio-economic groups.
Without such steps, it warns, demolition exercises risk becoming flashpoints for sustained public resistance and symbols of an increasingly polarised Lagos.
