By Kevin Nolan – SVP and Director of Public Affairs – KARV and Liz Grossman – Co-Founder – Baobab Consulting
President Trump’s first Oval Office meeting with an African leader, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, inevitably prompted a myriad of responses across global media, with such illustrative descriptors ranging from ‘ambush’ and ‘openly hostile’ to ‘uncomfortable’ and ‘awkward’. Love him or loathe him, President Trump thrives in such performative and, ultimately, viral theatrical displays of projecting power. He’s made a career out of it and will undoubtedly continue to do so.
The confusion around both policymaking and rollout in the initial months of this second Trump presidency is not limited to such public Oval Office grandstanding. Leaders around the globe have expressed growing frustrations with a seemingly inconsistent and erratically applied slate of global tariffs, rapid-fire executive orders that have dramatically reshaped foreign assistance and a massive reduction in climate change mitigation efforts. Ultimately, North and Sub-Saharan African public and private sectors are particularly vulnerable to such measures and will be disproportionately impacted due to a number of critical factors.
For African governments, companies, and civil society, the time is now to rethink strategic communications with American leadership. African countries have fought to be recognized as increasingly prominent global political players, gaining access to international markets and free trade mechanisms that are critical to economies reliant upon exports of agriculture, aquaculture, oil and gas, critical minerals and manufacturing goods. With policymaking and business in Washington D.C. now being conducted in profoundly new and different ways, decisionmakers and business leaders from Casablanca to Cape Town and Abidjan to Addis Ababa must prepare to navigate the challenges—and opportunities—of the American administration’s unconventional approach to relations with Africa.
Challenge 1. – A Sharp Decrease in U.S. Physical Presence Across Africa and the Need to Rethink Communications
From dismantling the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and trade programs such as Prosper Africa, substantial decrease in African Development Bank funding, the dissolution of Millennium Challenge Corporation, uncertainty around the future of the U.S. President Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and a reported significant number of consulates and embassies closing across the continent, the Trump Administration is sending a clear message. Traditional government mechanisms for conducting diplomacy are being replaced with private sector deals. As Ambassador Troy Fitrell, (soon to step down) Senior Bureau Official of African Affairs at the State Department, has recently began promoting, the U.S. is embarking on a “commercial diplomacy strategy,” In line with Trump’s ‘America First’ foreign policy approach more broadly, the U.S. is not a charitable organization—it’s looking to ink deals.
But it’s not just major infrastructure projects, vaccines and climate change mitigations programs themselves that are disappearing—so are the well-established network of communications channels that have allowed African governments, businesses and civil society to have important touchpoints with counterparts in the United States. In their absence, African countries must think more pragmatically in how they communicate news, announcements and, critically, mutually beneficial investment opportunities with relevant U.S. stakeholders, whether it be key trade associations, think tanks, congressional offices or investment vehicles.
Challenge 2. – Tariffs and Communicating the Value of African goods for the American Consumer
While dozens of countries across Africa will be impacted by the standard 10% tariff charge, a number of other nations theoretically could be hit with a substantively higher figure. BRICS members, which currently includes South Africa, Ethiopia and Egypt, could see the application of 100% tariffs per a recent threat by the Trump Administration. Further, since 2000 many African countries have benefitted from 0% tariffs in exports to the United States under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Increases in tariffs on these countries could have tremendous negative economic implications that reverberate across the continent. With AGOA set to expire this coming fall, how African governments and the private sector, along with some of its largest multinational organizations, namely, the African Union and African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), choose to present their case on enacting preferential trade policies and short and medium-term bilateral agreements will determine the extent to which tariffs are ultimately rolled out.
Stanley Austin, Partner at the ASFI Group, notes, “There’s only so much preparation leadership can do in an environment of such dynamic uncertainty—where each new day can render yesterday’s plans obsolete. In such conditions, African entities must prioritize building resilience through diversification and adaptability, going beyond unpredictability to create lasting strength and opportunity that would attract investment, American or otherwise.”
Challenge 3. – Making the Case for Climate Security
On the issue of climate change, the Trump administration continues to deregulate policies, defund organizations, remove researchers, and rollback federal programs aimed at monitoring and mitigating weather-related disasters and limiting greenhouse gas emissions. This is troubling news for Africa as the continent is disproportionately affected by severe droughts and floods that impede critical food production and displace millions. Accordingly, it is imperative leaders across the continent remain committed to demonstrating the very real threat of climate change in Africa in a strategic manner that resonates with appropriate audiences, including trade organizations, manufacturers of green technologies in addition to sympathetic members of Congress.
Hubert Gutsa, CEO and Founder of Scalar International, an asset manager committed to building energy and water efficiency infrastructure assets in Africa and other global markets, suggests “considering the evolving dynamics in relations between Africa and the new U.S. administration, a collaborative effort to formulate a novel African green deal that clearly delineates investment opportunities would be particularly beneficial. Africa’s fundamental strengths, such as a competitive cost structure supported by its mineral wealth could serve as persuasive elements in securing essential capital investment for infrastructure development. A cohesive program, accompanied by clear investment incentives, would likely foster renewed engagement from Washington towards Africa.”
Strategically Communicating Priorities
Simply put, currently there is no cohesive message or medium for African leadership to communicate to the Trump administration that engaging with Africa smartly and effectively is in America’s interest. Highlighting the idea of Africa as a continent rife with major infrastructure investment opportunities, scalable businesses, commodities and critical minerals is fundamental to making headway with leaders in Washington D.C., and the broader American public, especially as China and Iran eagerly expand their reach and influence across the continent. An evolved and more proactive media engagement strategy is imperative as well, not just distributing press releases and targeting traditional news outlets but with robust digital strategies, influencer marketing and communications partnerships.
Spokespeople require specialized media training and key messages need be covered by the right outlets and publications, including those non-traditional, alternative outlets and podcasts that have grown increasingly influential in recent years. These efforts will help navigate potentially viral moments and ultimately help demonstrate that engaging with Africa is strategically aligned with American priorities. Lastly, establishing and advancing meaningful relationships with D.C.-based think tanks, congressional offices, state and local government and relevant trade committees is paramount to any real and measurable public effort. The coming months will reveal much about the future of U.S.-Africa engagement. Not only will South Africa host the first-ever G20 summit on the African continent in November, but the Trump administration is expected to host the US‑Africa Leader’s Summit in New York this fall. Both can be lucrative opportunities to reshape relations, but African leadership must take the required initiative to be prepared for the new ‘America first’ foreign policy.
KARV is a strategic advisory and communications firm based in New York.
Baobab Consulting is a global firm that customizes solutions for organizations investing in Africa’s growth.