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The war in Iran has pushed pistachio prices to their highest level in years by disrupting supplies at a time when a growing consumer taste for foods based on the green nut has sent demand surging.
The conflict, which has affected shipping routes and regional trade, is complicating exports from Iran — one of the world’s largest producers — and straining an already tight market.
“It’s like gambling — we don’t know at what price to sell,” said Behnam Heydaripour, chief executive of London-based wholesaler Borna Foods.
Iran accounts for about a fifth of global pistachio production and as much as 25 to 30 per cent of global exports in some years, according to the US Department of Agriculture. But traders say that moving the country’s crop has become increasingly difficult as the US-Israeli war on Iran disrupts logistics across the Middle East.
“The war has amplified existing constraints rather than creating new ones from scratch,” said Nick Moss, an analyst at Expana, adding that issues were “stacking on top of each other”.
Pistachio prices rose to about $4.57 a pound in March, according to Expana, the highest since 2018. Demand has been fuelled in part by the global craze for “Dubai chocolate” — bars filled with pistachio cream and shredded pastry that went viral online in 2023. That helped drive a broader boom in pistachio-flavoured products.
But supply was already under pressure before the conflict. Harvests in 2025 across major producers, including the US, Turkey and Iran, came in below expectations, with Iran’s crop hit by drought.
Iran’s exports were also constrained by sanctions and domestic unrest. Periodic communications shutdowns this year have made it harder for exporters to co-ordinate sales with international buyers, slowing the flow of goods even before fighting began.
“It’s difficult to talk to the suppliers in Iran as their internet has been shut down. They can’t reply to emails,” said Heydaripour.
The war has compounded those problems. Shipping lines have cancelled or rerouted services, delaying cargo and raising costs. Pistachio shipping to key markets, including the Middle East and India, has faced disruption.
The problems “are manageable for now,” Moss said, but are having “material impacts on timing and costs”.
A ceasefire has halted fighting for now, but both the US and Iran are still both conducting blockades of the vital Strait of Hormuz, blocking most commercial traffic and squeezing global energy supplies and other trade.
The Middle East plays a central role in the pistachio trade, acting not only as a major consumer but also as a transit hub. Large volumes of Iranian pistachios are typically routed through countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Turkey before reaching global buyers.
“There is heightened uncertainty about how much Iranian product will feasibly reach global markets if the conflict persists,” Moss said.
Borna Foods, which derives about 95 per cent of its turnover from pistachios, imports the nuts from California, Spain, Turkey and Iran then supplies them to food manufacturers for use in products such as nut butters and ice cream. Import prices into the UK have “increased sharply”, Heydaripour said, from about £16 a kilo before the war to roughly £18.50.
The disruption comes at a critical time, Heydaripour said. “We’re getting close to summer, and in the summer we traditionally sell a lot because of ice cream.”
Buyers are turning to alternative suppliers, particularly the US, which accounts for about 40 per cent of global production. US exporters have already sold most of their available supply.
“We are trying to replace Iranian pistachio with other origins but there is a problem,” said Heydaripour. “Iranian pistachios contain [a] high level of oil compared to other origins. That makes a lot of difference in the taste.”
One of his customers is a big UK producer of baklava, he said: “He can’t replace Iranian with American because when he puts it into the oven, it’s going to be burnt dry.”
The search for alternatives is beginning to feed through into prices. Traders report spikes in some spot markets in the Middle East and India.
“If Iranian product remains inaccessible for a prolonged period, prices could face continued upward pressure,” Moss said.
Heydaripour remains optimistic that Iranian produce will make a comeback: “Iranians always find a way,” he said.