…Nigeria sees second highest surge in petrol price globally since Iran war
…Heatwave, power outages worsen pain
Adaeze Nwosu’s fabric shop on Lagos Island now sits in the dark most afternoons, her sewing machines completely silent. Just a month ago, she could afford to run her generator for four hours a day. Today, with petrol prices nearly 40 percent higher than they were a month ago, she saves her fuel exclusively for the night, so her three children have enough light to study.
“I am managing,” she said. “But managing is not the same as living.”
Nwosu’s struggle is the new reality for millions of Nigerian households and businesses currently being forced into pure survival mode. Africa’s largest oil-producing nation is buckling under a brutal convergence of crises. Skyrocketing petrol and diesel prices, crippling national grid outages, and an unforgiving heatwave have ignited a new chapter in the country’s cost-of-living crisis.
The economic fallout is leaving nothing untouched. From small shop owners to industrial manufacturers, the rising cost of keeping the lights on is rapidly eroding incomes, cutting production and reshaping spending patterns, underscoring how the recent escalation tied to the U.S.-Israel/Iran war has driven crude prices higher.
Data sourced from Global Petrol Prices showed Nigeria recorded a 39.5 percent rise in gasoline prices since the onset of the Iran war in late February, the second-highest increase of any country tracked worldwide.
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Only Vietnam, at 50 percent, fared worse.
For millions of Nigerian households, the surge is not just a statistic; it means that families are rationing petrol usage, limiting generator hours, and cutting spending on essentials.
With the national grid failing to provide consistent electricity, many rely on petrol-powered generators, making fuel costs a direct determinant of living standards.
“Fuel used to be something we managed. Now it dictates everything,” said Toyosi Akinbobola, a small business owner in Lagos who runs a neighbourhood grocery store. “If I run my generator all day, I make no profit. If I turn it off, I lose customers.”
For Nigeria, a country that only recently began winding down its own fuel subsidy regime under the President Bola Tinubu administration’s economic reforms, the sharp surge in petrol and diesel prices is pushing households and businesses to the brink.
Businesses face shrinking margins
For businesses, the pain is being felt across nearly every sector. Cold-chain logistics operators, critical for food and pharmaceuticals, said diesel costs have doubled their running expenses.
BusinessDay’s findings showed perishable goods are being moved in smaller, more frequent batches to manage the economics, or in some cases, not moved at all.
A poultry farmer in Ibafo told BusinessDay he had been forced to sell his stock early at a loss because he could no longer afford to keep the broilers cool and fed through the full fattening cycle.
Construction and manufacturing, both fuel-intensive industries, are reporting project slowdowns. A building materials supplier in Ogun State said transport costs had increased so sharply that several clients had paused orders.
“They are waiting to see if prices come down,” he said. “But prices are not coming down.”
The informal sector, which employs the majority of Nigerian workers, is absorbing perhaps the sharpest blows.
Okada (motorcycle taxi) operators are raising fares and reducing trips. Street food vendors are passing costs to consumers or shrinking portion sizes.
Small retail kiosks that once kept lights on into the evening are closing earlier.
Charles Ogbeide, a bakery owner in Alimosho local government, Lagos, said flour prices have risen alongside fuel costs, while electricity outages force reliance on diesel generators.
“We’ve reduced production by nearly 30 per cent. Customers can’t afford higher prices, but we can’t absorb the costs anymore,” he said.
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Heatwave and outages deepen crisis
The situation has been exacerbated by a prolonged heatwave across West Africa, increasing electricity demand at a time when Nigeria’s grid remains fragile.
In the first two months of 2026 alone, the national grid collapsed twice. BusinessDay’s findings showed households and businesses are forced to run fans, air conditioners and cooling systems longer, driving up energy consumption precisely when fuel prices are at record highs.
Compounding the strain are frequent power outages, which have become more severe in recent weeks. Grid collapses have left entire regions without electricity for hours or even days, forcing greater dependence on costly generators.
“The heat is unbearable without power,” said Tunde Adelaku, a resident in Gbagada community. “But running the generator all night is too expensive. We have to choose between comfort and affordability.”
Energy experts argue that long-term solutions lie in boosting domestic refining capacity, improving power infrastructure, and diversifying energy sources.
They said reinstating fuel subsidies, which the Tinubu administration scrapped in 2023 as part of a landmark fiscal overhaul, would ease the immediate pain but could unravel the hard-won credibility the government has built with international creditors and the IMF.
Targeted cash transfers to the poorest households remain under discussion, but disbursement infrastructure is limited, and coverage is patchy.
