Despite Ukraine’s land and manpower losses, the anniversary of Russia’s invasion reignites a spirit of resilience.
Kyiv, Ukraine – Four years ago, Kyiv’s streets were nearly empty. After Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, restaurants closed down and the roads were deserted. Snipers climbed to the rooftops above government buildings in the city centre.
Now, as the war barrels into a fifth year, shops are crowded, restaurants are full, and rush-hour traffic clogs the roads. The city feels alive.
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When the invasion began, experts and leaders around the world predicted that much of Ukraine could be taken at rapid speed.
Russian President Vladimir Putin himself reportedly said, “It’ll be over in a few weeks.” American security officials told Newsweek they expected Kyiv to fall within days, with the country’s resistance “neutralised” soon after.
Four years on, Russia has gained about 10 percent of Ukraine’s territory. The nearest Russian-held positions now lie more than 300km (185 miles) from Kyiv.
Along the way, Moscow has lost ground it once captured, and 1.3 million Russian soldiers have reportedly been killed or seriously wounded.
According to Russia, NATO expansion and what it describes as Ukraine’s growing militarisation remain the root causes of the war.
But since the onslaught began, two new countries have joined NATO – Sweden and Finland, which shares a 1,340-km (830-mile) border with Russia. And Ukraine has built one of the largest and most battle-ready militaries in Europe.
“While we are fighting, we are not losers, we are winners. It’s important to remember each day for us, when we survive, each day means victory for us, and we should just hold on,” Oleksandr Merezhko, a member of Ukraine’s parliament, told Al Jazeera.
Still, Ukraine’s battlefield successes have been limited.
The past four years have been marked by a failed counteroffensive and a brief incursion into Russia’s Kursk region that was later lost and, with it, thousands of lives.
Replacing those soldiers is proving difficult, according to Glib Voloskyi, a researcher at Come Back Alive, a Ukrainian foundation supporting the military and veterans.
“It is the fourth year of war, and the people who were idealistic and who were ready to volunteer to go and fight are running out,” Voloskyi told Al Jazeera. “So the mobilisation process is getting harder and harder, and Ukraine really needs additional incentives to speed up the process.”
To sustain the war effort and support the country’s domestic obligations, Ukraine relies on its European allies.
In January, the European Union approved a 90 billion-euro ($106bn) loan, expected to help fund Ukraine’s military needs through 2027.
With continued financial assistance and arms supplies from Europe, Kyiv appears positioned to sustain its war effort.
“I don’t see how this war can end anytime soon,” said Volodymyr Proskura, a Lviv resident. “There may be a ceasefire at some point, but it could simply lead to another war in a few years.”