How the end of subsidies has created a new political economy in Nigeria


Nigeria’s removal of fuel subsidies in late May 2023 and the shift toward a more market-reflective foreign exchange regime have altered how public resources are distributed across the federation.

Higher fuel prices and a weaker naira were the immediate effects. The more durable change is fiscal: state governments are now operating with materially larger nominal inflows, giving governors greater influence over public spending than at any point in recent decades. That is why the reform debate is quietly relocating from Abuja’s macro choices to

Nigeria’s removal of fuel subsidies in late May 2023 and the shift toward a more market-reflective foreign exchange regime have altered how public resources are distributed across the federation.

Higher fuel prices and a weaker naira were the immediate effects. The more durable change is fiscal: state governments are now operating with materially larger nominal inflows, giving governors greater influence over public spending than at any point in recent decades. That is why the reform debate is quietly relocating from Abuja’s macro choices to

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