Global businesses are entering an era of destabilization, defined by trade friction, shifting geopolitical alliances, and mounting pressure to redesign supply chains. The old assumptions of seamless globalization are giving way to a fragmented reality where tariffs, sanctions, and export controls can upend operations overnight. Geopolitical uncertainty – from regional conflicts to strategic derisking between major economies – forces companies to rethink sourcing, manufacturing, and market access. Supply chains, once optimized for efficiency, now require carefully planned safeguards against political risk, regulatory volatility, and sudden disruptions. This shift is structural, not temporary.
As world leaders convene in Davos, CEOs face the realities of this geo-economic fragmentation – where resilience, not efficiency, will define competitiveness.
The new normal: geopolitics and growth are inseparable
As the World Economic Forum commences on January 19 2026, the message for global business is simple: the old playbook is obsolete. Geopolitics and trade have become inseparable, with sanctions, tariffs, and export controls shaping market access as much as consumer demand. In this environment, risk management is not a back-office function; it is a strategic directive at the board level.
The WEF’s theme “A Spirit of Dialogue” is organized around five imperatives: cooperating in a contested world; unlocking growth; investing in people; deploying innovation responsibly; and building prosperity within planetary boundaries. That framing mirrors what executives already feel in their P&L and risk registers: trade, regulation, technology, and climate have fused into a single operating system for corporate strategy.
Trade is fragmenting, but competition for growth is intensifying
Davos 2026 will center on a singular key question: how to achieve growth in an era defined by fragmentation and shifting rules.
Recent indicators capture the two-speed reality. The WTO’s 2025 outlook warns of turbulence: tariff spikes and policy uncertainty have darkened the near-term horizon, with scenarios ranging from fractional declines in merchandise trade to only modest recovery.
Yet, paradoxically, UNCTAD reports global trade values reaching a record $35 trillion in 2025, powered by East Asia and South-South corridors. This is not globalization’s collapse but its reconfiguration. Commerce is adapting, not retreating; shifting toward regional clusters and politically aligned bilateral partners.
McKinsey’s latest analysis reveals the underlying architecture: trade is tilting toward proximity and trust. U.S. flows increasingly favor Mexico and Vietnam; Europe continues to pivot away from Russia; ASEAN, India, and Brazil are weaving cross-bloc ties. These patterns signal that growth remains attainable – but through different lanes and under different rules, where resilience and strategic alignment matter as much as efficiency.
Sanctions and tariffs are converging into one regulatory front dominated by national security
In line with this overarching shift, boards can no longer treat sanctions, export controls, tariffs and trade defense as discrete issues. Regulators themselves are coordinating more closely than at any time in recent memory and this integration blurs traditional boundaries between trade compliance and geopolitical risk management, creating a complex environment where businesses must navigate overlapping restrictions.
2025 – 26 brings tighter U.S. and EU scrutiny on advanced technologies, China moving toward tighter customs and export controls on strategic resources, evolving controls on inbound and outbound investments, and sustained pressure tied to Russia, Iran, and China. At the same time, tariffs have shifted from a secondary tool to a primary driver of trade outcomes – suppressing volumes and forcing companies to front-load shipments or reroute flows, as seen in the first half of 2025 where cross-border trade figures reflected companies front-loading imports ahead of the expected impact of escalating tariffs. A tariff adjustment may trigger sanctions exposure, and vice versa. The result is a unified, high-stakes framework where proactive monitoring and strategic foresight are essential to maintain competitiveness and avoid costly disruptions.
Supply chains: resilience with measurable value at risk
Additionally, expect 2026 to elevate supply-chain resilience further from a defensive measure to a core growth lever. Resilience now underpins agility, market access, and investor confidence in a world where disruption is structural, not cyclical. As such, industry analysts point to three converging pressures: geopolitical intervention, regulatory complexity – including cross-jurisdictional human rights and due diligence regimes – and climate-driven shocks. Taken together, these trends make resilience a strategic differentiator: companies that invest in adaptive, compliant, and transparent supply chains will not only mitigate risk but unlock sustainable performance gains.
CEOs need a new resilience playbook
Many companies are not yet equipped for integrated legal-operational-geopolitical risks. Here’s a pragmatic, board-level playbook we see high performers adopting:
- It starts with building the right team and equipping them for a world where traditional silos no longer suffice: resilience requires cross-functional collaboration. The Davos 2026 imperative of investing in people reflects this necessity of equipping teams with cross-disciplinary expertise: Legal teams must grasp geopolitical risk; compliance officers need fluency in sanctions regimes; procurement specialists should be versed in export controls and ESG dynamics; and teams must prepare for cyber threats. And the C-Suite must have oversight of all of these.
- Secondly, a culture of operational continuity is the heartbeat of resilience, and it thrives on adaptability. In a world where global shocks and policy rifts can disrupt supply chains, digital systems, and workforce stability, organizations that embed continuity into their culture stand apart. This means considering strategically building delays into critical processes, requiring rigorous risk assessment and the agility to adjust plans quickly through established governance frameworks as conditions shift – whether due to market volatility, geopolitical tensions, or unexpected operational challenges. For leading enterprises, continuity is proactive – one that ensures not only operational stability but also compliance adaptability, and preserves trust, sustains performance, and turns unpredictability into an expected and manageable constant.
- Thirdly, a robust internal compliance program (ICP) is essential – not as a static checklist, but as a living framework that evolves with geopolitical and regulatory shifts. This means continuous monitoring of sanctions, export controls, and trade restrictions, paired with clear communication channels across legal, procurement, and operations teams. A strong ICP should anticipate risk rather than merely react: scenario planning, early-warning systems, and regular cross-functional briefings help organizations stay ahead of sudden policy changes. Embedding compliance into strategic decision-making ensures that resilience is not an after-thought but a core business capability, and one which is designed to grease, rather than gum up, the wheels of productivity
- Finally, documentation, though often overlooked, is the cornerstone of accountability. CEOs should ensure that documentation is not treated as a formality but as a strategic tool: it creates internal accountability, demonstrates diligence to regulators, and serves as the first line of defense in audits or investigations.
In a fragmented global environment and an era of uncertainty, disciplined preparation is both the most reliable shield and the most effective weapon.
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