As 2025 draws to a close, Nigeria’s economic landscape is showing signs of cautious resurgence—but the story behind the numbers is uneven. Some sectors are quietly booming, others remain fragile, and a handful require strategic capital and serious policy fixes. The winners, the laggards, and the potential value creators are starting to emerge.
Non-oil growth: quietly carrying the economy
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show real GDP grew by 3.98 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025. Growth was driven largely by non-oil sectors — agriculture, industry and services — underscoring a structural shift away from oil dependence. Within that mix, agriculture remains a reliable anchor: crop production and livestock continue to support output and food security. Meanwhile, services and industry — especially in manufacturing, processing and distribution — are holding up despite inflation, FX issues and energy challenges. This suggests that, for investors with patience and resilience, non-oil Nigeria offers durable opportunities.
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Digital economy and telecom: the new growth stars
The most dynamic growth is crystallising not in traditional sectors, but in technology-driven industries. The combined Information & Communications Technology (ICT) and telecom sectors now contribute more than 11 percent to GDP, up significantly in 2025. Telecom operators such as MTN Nigeria report surging data revenue—over 57 percent growth in 2025 alone—driven by rising demand for internet access, fintech services, digital entertainment and remote work connectivity. As more SMEs, consumers and public institutions embrace digital services, fintech, data-centre infrastructure, e-commerce logistics and digital entertainment stand out as high-conviction areas. Smart capital, operational excellence and clarity on regulation could accelerate value creation in these domains.
Oil & gas: Legacy wealth, renewed possibilities — if security holds
Despite decades of underinvestment and structural challenges, 2025 has renewed attention on oil & gas. The recent upstream licensing round—offering 50 blocks, including onshore, shallow-water, frontier and one deep-water block—is expected to attract around $10 billion in investment, potentially unlocking 2 billion barrels over the next decade. Major global players are repositioning: for example, ExxonMobil is planning a $1.5 billion investment to revive its deep-water field, while partnerships and stake sales among large energy firms point to renewed interest in Nigeria’s underdeveloped basins. If security and regulatory risks are managed, oil & gas remains a significant opportunity — especially in deep-water, gas-to-power, and export-oriented production. Savvy investors and service providers with local knowledge could access above-average returns.
Who is under strain — and where opportunities lie in fixing weaknesses
Not all sectors are thriving. Manufacturing, while showing modest growth, remains troubled by unreliable electricity, high diesel costs and foreign-exchange constraints that limit raw-material imports. Capacity utilisation across plants remains below competitive thresholds — a structural drag on output and competitiveness. This underperformance represents an investment opportunity: improvements in power supply (on-grid or captive), logistics infrastructure, local component manufacturing and supply-chain resilience could turn manufacturing from a weak link into a core strength. Investors and strategists who understand operational turnaround could unlock value here.
The debt on power and the chance for gas-based revival
Electricity remains a major constraint. However, in 2025, the government approved payment of ₦185 billion (~US$128 million) to settle gas debts owed to power-plant suppliers — a move designed to revive supply to the grid and strengthen investor confidence in the gas-to-power chain. This may mark a turning point. If gas delivery stabilises, investors and operators who provide gas infrastructure, power-distribution services, metering, and embedded power solutions could benefit. In a country starved of reliable power, gas-fuelled electricity systems represent a high-leverage opportunity for private capital.
Where advice, capital and institutional reform can make a real difference
Amid the mixed performance of Nigeria’s economy, what the country requires is not merely an injection of capital, but strategic capital combined with capable execution and stronger governance. The most transformative opportunities today lie in sectors where investment, expertise and institutional discipline can unlock productivity and long-term competitiveness. One such area is the digital economy. Nigeria’s expanding fintech landscape, its rapidly growing payments infrastructure and the rising demand for secure data storage all point to a pressing need for deeper digital infrastructure. Investments in modern data centres, nationwide payments networks, rural agent systems and robust cybersecurity frameworks would accelerate financial inclusion and strengthen the foundations of a truly digital marketplace. With the right regulatory support and disciplined execution, these assets could redefine efficiency across multiple sectors, from retail to logistics to government services.
Equally pivotal is the energy and power sector, where the country’s chronic supply gaps continue to undermine industrial growth. Gas-to-power investments, distributed generation projects and grid rehabilitation remain essential to restoring reliability and lowering production costs. But capital alone is not enough; these projects must be de-risked through clear policy signals, cost-reflective pricing structures, improved transmission planning and transparent governance. If executed well, energy-sector reforms could unlock productivity gains that ripple across the entire economy. Agriculture—long Nigeria’s largest employer—represents another high-potential frontier. The real opportunity now lies not in raw commodity output, but in building integrated value chains that process, package and add value domestically. Agro-processing zones, cold-chain systems, storage facilities and market linkage platforms can transform agriculture from a subsistence activity into a competitive industrial ecosystem. With the right blend of investment and institution-building, Nigeria can retain far more value at home, reduce import dependence and create jobs across rural and peri-urban communities.
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In each of these areas, the combination of strategic advice, patient capital and institutional reform offers the possibility of genuine transformation — not just growth on paper, but progress that strengthens the foundations of long-term prosperity. These require good governance, stable policies, and operational discipline — plus advisors and capital willing to take medium-term views.
Summary: Who’s growing, who’s rising, who’s struggling — and where the smart money could flow
Overall, 2025 reveals a Nigeria that is neither collapsing nor soaring — but recalibrating. The strong, stable performers are non-oil sectors: agriculture, ICT/telecom, services, and parts of industry. The potential winners are in energy (especially gas/power), digital infrastructure, agro-processing and logistics. The stressed but salvageable players are in traditional manufacturing. For investors, entrepreneurs, consultants and development partners, the message is clear: where there is real pain, there is also real opportunity. Those willing to combine capital with strategic vision and rigorous execution may find the greatest rewards not in headline-grabbing multinationals, but in rebuilding Nigeria’s industrial, energy, digital and agribusiness foundations. If 2025 taught us anything, it’s that Nigeria’s future wins won’t come from quick fixes but from patient, systemic rebuilding.
Dr Oluyemi Adeosun, Chief Economist, BusinessDay.
