The gap between planning and execution is not a systemic dysfunction or a policy deficit in Nigeria: it occurs across sectors. BudgIT recently reported in their 2023 analysis of federal capital budget implementation that governments rarely execute over 65 percent of capital projects in any given year after being budgeted. According to the 2022 reports from the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC), there are about 11,000 abandoned capital projects in the country, largely due to poor project design, monitoring, and execution processes.
This same gap or underperformance can be seen in the energy sector, as well as the transportation sector. Although Nigeria spent a staggering ₦1.7 trillion to improve the power sector from 2015 to 2021, and it was a promising reform in providing universal access to electricity, only 55 percent of Nigerians are connected to the power grid, and service delivery of electricity is unreliable, which continuously disincentivises industrialisation. This exemplifies the gap between planning and execution when you consider other important variables such as population density, industrial demand, transmission, and geographic realities that were not part of the project design or implementation process.
The cumulative results of social protection interventions also follow this gap between planning and execution. The National Social Investment Programmes (NSIP), in particular N-Power and the Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programme to support poverty reduction, were paths to opportunity through poverty reduction. However, in 2020, independent audits by the World Bank showed that targeting of beneficiaries was a factor missing for planning and implementing the variable-loaded design failure for the social transfers (e.g., CCTs) and stepped design flaws (e.g., N-Power). There were also issues with duplication of the database used to assess the distribution of CCTs to poor households and limitations in measurement that could lead to protecting and sustaining positive impacts of receiving either a CCT or an N-Power opportunity due to weaknesses that come with the depth of impact data collection design.
This is where senior analysts need to step in—not just to analyse why things went wrong, but also to embed foresight and feedback loops into the basic structure of planning and delivery. Otherwise, reform will continue to fail through executional blindness, not through any failure of vision.
Analysts as reform catalysts: From data to delivery
The role of senior analysts in governance reform is far from just a theoretical exercise or a superficial addition. Their influence is clear in countries that have successfully narrowed their execution gaps by weaving analytical skills into the fabric of policy-making. Take Rwanda’s Strategic Capacity Building Initiative (SCBI) as an example; it brought senior analysts into the presidency and key ministries, ensuring that policies were not only closely monitored but also adjusted as needed. This approach helped Rwanda rise in the World Bank Doing Business rankings, with project execution timelines improving by over 40 percent from 2010 to 2020.
In Nigeria, some state governments are starting to tap into analytical talent more effectively. Edo State’s transformation, driven by the Edo State Transformation Enhancement Programme (Edo-STEP) and the John Odigie-Oyegun Public Service Academy (JOOPSA), showcases how bringing in senior strategy officers and data analysts can lead to tangible improvements in public service delivery.
Under Governor Godwin Obaseki, Edo has implemented performance scorecards, policy execution matrices, and dashboard reviews across various ministries and agencies. For instance, in the realm of education reform, the EdoBEST initiative utilised real-time analytics on teachers and classrooms to monitor student progress, resulting in a remarkable 36 percent increase in literacy rates among primary school students between 2018 and 2022 (World Bank, 2023).
On a federal level, the Bureau of Public Service Reforms (BPSR) and the Nigeria Governors’ Forum Secretariat have made efforts to integrate Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) analysts into development planning. However, scaling these initiatives has proven difficult due to a lack of clear career paths, institutional incentives, and performance-based promotions for analysts within the civil service.
Damilare Davola is a seasoned investment banking and business analyst with extensive expertise in technological research, strategic analysis, and emerging market trends. Currently serving at Bank of America, he leverages his deep analytical acumen to drive data-driven decision-making, optimise investment strategies, and enhance operational efficiencies.
