Presented at a requiem symposium in celebration of the late Dr Omololu Olunloyo in Ibadan on June 18, 2025 by Dr Lasisi Olagunju
I am starting my offering here with a folk story told by Dr. Omololu Olunloyo in his article “The Tragic Quartet” published in the Nigerian Tribune of Monday, July 17, 1995. The story revolves around a fictional alliance between four animals: Cobra, Fox, Lion, and Tortoise. These animals came together to form a “friendship league.”
Because ilu ti ko ba si ofin, ese ko si nbe (where there is no law, there is no sin). If such a community exists, it would be a lawless society. So, in coming together, the four animals defined the boundaries of mutual respect in their intended “Articles of Association.” Each of the animals declared a personal taboo, something they would not tolerate and would react violently against.
Cobra warned that he could not stand anyone treading on its tail.
Fox’s greatest dislike was mockery or abuse on account of his ugliness.
The Lion demanded respect and would not tolerate being treated like an ordinary animal. He would never suffer lightly those who dared soil his dignity.
Tortoise was initially humorous pointing to his shape, his short neck and uneven back. Then, he promised “very painful punishment” for anyone involved in expensive jokes that mocked his slowness and bumpy appearance.
“All went well with the quartet initially until the fateful day, a lapse occurred. The tortoise trudging along in its most ungainly way had come late only to be received by a burst of laughter from the rest of the group. Angered and very bitter, the tortoise waited to plot his revenge at the next meeting. He chose to arrive well ahead of schedule.
“He dug into the soft soil, concealed himself with some loose soil and other debris around his neck and head as he is wont to do during periods of hibernation. Other members came and while waiting for Tortoise (who was in hiding), they engaged in reckless banter as usual.
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“Before they went far, the concealed Tortoise spattered loose soil on the coat of the fox who grew mad swearing, and spilting at the lion who he wrongly assumed did it. The Lion growled and attacked Fox who mistakenly stepped on the the tail of Cobra who in turn thought it was the Lion. The Cobra bit the Lion in the belly whilst the Lion was in the process of tearing Fox apart. The scene of the meeting was soon strewn with the corpses of the Lion, the Fox and the Cobra. As to cause of death, Lion died from a fatal snake bite, Fox from being torn to pieces by His Royal Majesty, the Lion, whilst Cobra had his vital backbone crushed in the scuffle. The battered tortoise hobbled away quite amused but not before having his back shell broken when the lion squashed it, in a mad rush after receiving a snake bite.”
Each of these taboos foreshadowed the eventual conflict and breakdown of their alliance, as all the animals ended up violating one another’s taboos, culminating in a tragic, deadly clash where only Tortoise barely survived.
Olunloyo conclued that story with a warning that “in a total tragedy, no one would be spared.”
This narrative is the story of the power elite in Nigeria. It is a fitting introduction to the topic of this presentation.
Reviewing, decoding a puzzle
Dr. Victor Omololu Olunloyo, engineer, mathematician, statesman, and writer, occupied a rare space in Nigeria’s intellectual history. His space is one where mathematics and journalism and politics intersect. Among his many legacies was his 1990s regular ‘Monday Think Tank’ column in the Nigerian Tribune, where he deftly used the tools of logic, abstraction, and symbolism to interrogate the complexities of Nigerian politics.
We will understand what Olunloyo did with his column when we understand that Mathematics allows us to identify patterns, quantify relationships, and make predictions. With this, I am saying what several authorities have said that almost all of human experiences are captured by mathematical frameworks. In the years he wrote his column for the Nigerian Tribune, almost every edition was an exercise in mathematical constructions. I cannot treat all (or a majority) of the columns with their varying themes in a paper for an event as this. There is, however, one key article that I consider as representative of all, a summary of everything anyone would want to say about the Nigerian conundrum. And that will be the focus of my presentation here.
In a 1980 journal article titled ‘Mathematics in the Newspaper,’ researchers James Czepiel and Edward Esty find, to their surprise, the extent to which mathematical knowledge is necessary to fully comprehend news articles. They found in newspaper contents, maths categories such as small and large number concepts, simple and medium mathematical processes, higher mathematical processes, functions, statistics, and the use of graphs, charts, and tables.
This paper focuses on one remarkable installment of Olunloyo’s column: the edition of Monday, April 22, 1996, a half-page article of just four words. He entitled it ‘The Tragedy Puzzle.’
I have decided to use this particular article as an exemplification of what I call ‘mathematical journalism’, an unconventional yet precise mode of political commentary that is structured like a puzzle to provoke critical decoding by the reader.
Olunloyo wrote that article at a time when open speech could land you in prison, or in even worse situations. At a time when journalism was often reactive, Olunloyo showed that it could be constructive, coded, and timeless. He showed that mathematics could be used to illuminate power, and that symbolism could be deployed to crack structures.
‘The Tragedy Puzzle’ pointed us to a symbolic structure and a systemic failure. In it Olunloyo gave us a riddle, a metaphor and a warning. These he did in just seven letters which he grouped into a name. That name is SADBOY which is further strengthened with a satellite letter A.
Each letter, it turned out, stood for a powerful figure. Together, they were the architects of whatever Nigeria we had then, and even now. They are an elite caste of politicians, soldiers, and potentates whose decisions, or indecisions, affected and still affect how this country walks or wobbles.
Structure of the Puzzle
The column presents a coded political message using:
- Anagrammed phrases: “SAD BOY” and “OYD BSA”.
- A circular diagram with labeled points: A, B, D, O, S, Y
- A central figure/letter ‘A’ inside the circle.
- An outlier, divisor ‘A’ following the flow, tagging along, denominating the various actors.
- Arrowed flow – “SAD BOY → OYD BSA → A”
Puzzle as political allegory.
At the heart of the article is a striking visual device: a three-step symbolic sequence beginning with the phrase “SAD BOY”, morphing into the anagram “OYD BSA”, and culminating in a circle containing the same letters, now arranged around a central figure, a large Alpha “A.”
This construct, though brief and enigmatic, encodes a deep commentary on Nigeria’s political condition in the mid-1990s. Through the tools of geometry and symbolic logic, Olunloyo speaks volumes without naming a single individual.
Coding and decoding the puzzle
The Yoruba say if you speak English at your in-laws’ place, you will have to do the translation yourself. Olunloyo knew this but in this article, he provides no key to the puzzle. The only help he offers is the reference he made to his 27 September, 1993 article titled ‘Agony in the West and the ING II.’ Now, ‘reference’ in mathematics means more than what it ordinarily means. My dictionary says ‘reference’ “provides a basis for understanding the relationships between different elements in a mathematical model.”
What does the 27 September, 1993 article contain that will help the reader solve the puzzle. The article contains 20 paragraphs. Tucked in the 18th paragraph are lines that unlock a puzzle that would be published three years later. He wrote “The tragedy of Abiola’s eventual failure will be grim to contemplate. Time, energy, tons of money, philanthropy, titles, religious activities, personal friendship and more would have gone up in smoke. My secret code, Exercise SADBOY encodes an advice to MKO. He should forget about money, time and energy. He should pray hard to God. He should thereafter try to strengthen his connections with S= Sonekan; A= Anenih; D= Dasuki; B= Babangida; O= Obasanjo; and Y= Yar’Adua.” It is particularly interesting that that article opens with Olunloyo noting that “Once upon a time, it was IBB and MKO in the central court…in the centre today is MKO and the ING Sonekan.”
Remember that between ‘The Tragedy Puzzle’ written in 1996 and the 1993 article is a time lag of almost three years. Was the 1993 key still relevant in 1996? Scholars have told us that Mathematical models don’t remain static; they are often refined and updated as new data becomes available, or as more complex aspects of a problem are understood. What we see in the 1996 piece is a validation of the warning of 1993 but now with reshuffled, new and better developed characters.
So, the overall effect of these developments was a revised code that better reflects the 1996 reality. Here, we find the characters updated by Olunloyo (without naming them), but he had their positions shuffled and a new letter ‘A’ added.
What we encounter here is a tragedy of recurrence. The seven letters S, A, D, B, O, Y, A are no accident. Each corresponds, plausibly and powerfully, to a prominent political actor of the day. This is my own reading of the puzzle:
S – Ernest Shonekan: Interim leader post-Babangida. He got and lost power in 1993.
A (first) – Moshood Kashimawo Abiola: Winner of the annulled June 12, 1993 election.
D – Ibrahim Dasuki: Then Sultan of Sokoto and northern power broker. Or, Diya, Abacha’s deputy.
B – Ibrahim Babangida: Military President under whom the crisis started.
O – Olusegun Obasanjo: Former head of state, later politician and president.
Y – Shehu Musa Yar’Adua: Politician and Obasanjo’s deputy as military leader.
A (second, central) – Sani Abacha: maximum military ruler and central power figure at the time.
By embedding these names in an anagrammatic cycle, Olunloyo dramatizes a nation in perpetual political stasis, a nation where the actors change positions but remain within a closed system. What Olunloyo offers here is a form of closed set in which leadership is defined by power struggle and in which there are movements without motion.
Permutation as political critique
The transformation from “SAD BOY” → “OYD BSA” is not random; it is a mathematical permutation, a reshuffling of existing elements that changes form but not substance. This reflects a political system marked not by innovation or transition, but by power tussle and recycling of fate among the same elite. The rearranged letters suggest confusion and instability.
The circle and the central A
In the final frame, Olunloyo draws a circle; a classic symbol of cycles and entrapment around the six outer letters, with A (Abacha) at the center. This diagram evokes:
- Central dominance: Abacha as the immovable ruler at the center of Nigeria’s political orbit.
Perpetual return: No matter how the letters (leaders) are shuffled, the same system persists. - Geometric entrapment: The circular form implies closed recursion, a national tragedy of repeated power without progress.
Le us look at the two As. In a subtle move, Olunloyo places two As ( Abiola, outside the powerline, and the other, Abacha, dogging and controlling and doing whatever he liked with the system and the other members of the power elite who challenged him. This echoes the tragic tension between legitimacy and force, election and suppression, hope and betrayal.
Let us look at the various stages of the tragedy puzzle:
- Anagram analysis
“SAD BOY” is a clear anagram – a type of word play in which the letters of a word or phrase are rearranged to create new words and phrases. Dictionaries say that anagrams are sometimes used to drop clues, unlock secrets, and invite attention to deeper meanings within a text.
- The diagram (circle).
The scattered initials suggest power orbiting the central figure.
The arrows suggest a flow of power from one group to another. We can see how the jumbled letters are now led by an “A”, the reigning dictator, Sani Abacha.
The chaos of the anagram (“SAD BOY → OYD BSA”) hints at disorder in Nigeria’s leadership and governance.
The tragedy: Despite reshuffling the actors, the outcome remains the same. Repeated denomination of the actors by the alpha A produces a centralised authoritarian power in which the incumbent was the law, the big brother, trailing, monitoring, encircling, arresting, and jailing his real and potential rivals.
Interpretation
Omololu Olunloyo’s “The Tragedy Puzzle” is a satirical and encrypted commentary on Nigeria’s political leadership crisis in the mid-1990s. Through cryptic acronyms and geometric symbolism, he warned of a tragic power tussle that was sure of not ending well for the actors in the drama and for the nation itself.
Every character in that loop turned out a victim of power. One by one, they suffered what Aristotelian tragedy describes as peripeteia (a sudden reversal of fortune). Indeed, The Tragedy Puzzle was written two days after one of the actors, Dasuki, got unraveled in one of Nigeria’s endless tragedies. Dasuki, the D in the 1993 code, was deposed on 20 April, 1996 by Abacha who was not so recognized in the 1993 power calculus. If you interprete D in 1996 as Oladipo Diya, he was arrested in 1997 for plotting to topple Abacha. The A (Tony Anenih) was the national chairman of Abiola’s Social Democratic Party (SDP) in April 1993 when the first article was written. He lost that position on 17 November, 1993 courtesy of Abacha who sacked Shonekan as head of state that day, dissolved the political parties and took over the government. Abacha took on the A costume at that point. Obasanjo was arrested by Abacha on Friday, 17 March, 1995. Earlier that month, Abacha had arrested Yar’Adua. The man died in jail on 8 December, 1997. Abiola himself was in jail in 1996 when The Tragedy Puzzle was published. He had earlier been arrested by Abacha in June 1994. Abiola died in detention on 7 July, 1998. Abacha himself expired on 8 June, 1998. Abdulsalami Abubakar became the Alpha A in place of the dead Abacha. That was the end of June 12 .The cycle of tragedy was completed, the SADBOY prophecy made in 1996 was fulfilled in 1998.
So, I call this classic mathematical journalism, a blend of logic, politics, and symbolism that exposes the grim cycles of Nigerian governance.
Deploying Mathematics as metaphor, Olunloyo, like a mathematician modeling a chaotic system, reduced a turbulent era to a mathematical symbol. This is not just journalism; it is abstraction with purpose, an exercise that imposes intelligibility on political chaos.
Columnist as prophet.
Writers are prophets; Olunloyo was one. Three weeks ago, General Obasanjo made a statement which uncannily made the SADBOY formula priescent.
General Obasanjo while addressing an audience was reported by the Vanguard newspaper as making the following statement: “When I was arrested, the man who arrested me… decided that some of us must be liquidated if he had to be in power permanently. The man…boasted that three of us will not come out of the detention or prison alive – that MKO Abiola will not come out alive, that Shehu Yar’Adua will not come out alive and that Olusegun Obasanjo will not come out alive. Two of the three he had planned not to come out alive did not come out alive. I did come out alive not because of my power but the special grace of God.” The Tragedy Puzzle predicted exactly what Abacha eventually planned for each of the leaders on the Olunloyo list.
Olunloyo’s column was a weekly exercise in cognitive provocation. With it, he married political commentary with mathematical permutations. He once came into the Tribune newsroom with an old copy of the newspaper with the lead headline: ‘Enough is Enough’. He then asked us to look at the lead headline of that very day’s edition: It was also ‘Enough is Enough.’ The same leader who uttered the first uttered the second. Dr Olunloyo told us that the implication of that repetition/coincidence was that the country had not progressed an inch since the first copy was produced several years earlier. So, when you look at “The Tragedy Puzzle” as a construction that spanned three-years (1993-1996), you will agree with me that it stands as a masterpiece of Olunloyo’s peculiar genre, a visual, intellectual, and moral indictment of Nigeria’s circular politics.
The tragedy of today
Almost thirty years after that tragedy, I ask: Who and who make up SADBOY now? Has the puzzle changed or has it simply found new players? While the original SADBOY acronym fit the context of military rule and its immediate aftermath, the core idea remains sharply relevant: that a few elite individuals (or institutions), acting cavalierly can shape the tragic trajectory of an entire nation.
We can each try a contemporary decoding of the puzzle. You can apply the letters to any name or institution domiciled in Abuja, Lagos, Kaduna, Enugu and Port Harcourt; what you get will still be a tragedy.
Conclusion.
Distinguished ladies and gentlemen, Olunloyo gave us a riddle in 1996. Today, that riddle persists. The names may change, the actors may rotate, but the structure, the SADBOY structure, remains alive, well, and foreboding.
But here is the truth: SADBOY is not just a list of people. It is a system and a culture. A disease of leadership and of its followers. And if we are not careful, if we do not speak, act, and insist on change, then one day, history will add any of us to that SADBOY structure.
Your Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen, I refer you to the folklore we started with. It is a timeless allegory critiquing Nigeria’s perennial political instability and the fragile alliances among the ruling elite. It suggests that if the trends continue, everyone, rulers and the ruled alike, may be destroyed in a tragic national implosion.
So, as I end this presentation, I call on all of us not to stop asking questions on why Nigeria has remained on a barber’s chair, movement without motion.
Let us not be the passive audience at our own funeral. Let us solve the puzzle not just decode it.
I thank you for listening.
REFERENCES
Czepiel, J., & Esty, E. (1980). Mathematics in the Newspaper. The Mathematics Teacher, 73(8), 582–586.
Nigerian Tribune, 27 September, 1993.
Nigerian Tribune, 17 July , 1995
Nigerian Tribune, 22 April, 1996.
Saturday Tribune, 25 May, 2019.
Vanguardngr.com, 27 May, 2025.