By Luminous Jannamike, Abuja
In the vibrant Main Market of Onitsha, where thousands of traders haggle daily over electronics and fabrics in crowded malls and shopping plazas, a new political rumour is spreading like wildfire. From tea sellers’ (Mai Shayi) stalls in Kano to WhatsApp groups in Abuja, Nigerians are abuzz with speculation ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, who were strong rivals during the 2023 elections, have now joined forces under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in a bold move to challenge President Bola Tinubu’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2027.
For a nation worn out by rising fuel prices, a weak naira, and political fatigue, this alliance feels like a spark; possibly of hope, or of chaos. Can Atiku and Obi unite Nigeria’s divided opposition and defeat Tinubu, or will their coalition collapse under the pressure of conflicting ambitions?
A Nation Hungry for Change
Today, Nigeria’s political landscape is marked by frustration and opportunity. The 2023 elections, which brought Tinubu to power amid intense controversy, exposed deep divisions within the opposition.
Atiku, then the PDP presidential candidate, and Obi, running under the Labour Party, split the anti-APC vote, paving the way for Tinubu’s win.
Now, in a surprise move announced two Wednesdays ago, both men have aligned with the ADC, a smaller party with a modest history. Their goal is clear: to unite opposition forces and stop Tinubu’s re-election.
Prominent politicians are flocking to the ADC, including former Senate President David Mark, ex-PDP leader Uche Secondus, and discontented APC figures like Abubakar Malami, Rauf Aregbesola, Babachir Lawal, and Rotimi Amaechi.
For millions of Nigerians, from fish sellers in Calabar to tech entrepreneurs in Lagos, the move brings cautious optimism. Many long for a united front against the APC, but doubts remain about whether such prominent figures can truly work together.
The ruling APC, despite the country’s economic difficulties, still has strong political influence, thanks to its position in government. Fuel prices are soaring, unemployment remains high, and the naira keeps losing value.
Atiku brings political experience and strong support from the North, while Obi is backed by a vibrant youth movement in the South. Together, they pose a serious threat. However, their coalition depends on resolving internal rivalries and winning over a tired electorate.
The stakes are high. Nigeria has seen many failed political coalitions. Citizens, whether in cities or villages, wonder if this is real change or just another elite reshuffle. The ADC must turn this glimmer of hope into a strong and united force capable of taking on Tinubu’s well-established political machine.
A Strategic Gamble Amid Tensions
Choosing the ADC is a practical strategy. Registering a new party through INEC is slow and difficult, full of red tape and delays.
Formed in 2005, the ADC already has offices in all 36 states and a national structure in place. Unlike the PDP, weakened by internal factions, or the Labour Party, which is battling leadership crises, the ADC offers a cleaner slate for opposition forces.
Still, the ADC is not brand new. It has always been a minor player and now suddenly finds itself at the centre of attention. While this excites some, others are doubtful.
Some believe the ADC could overtake the PDP by 2027, but only if it handles the arrival of ambitious politicians wisely. Atiku sees himself as the natural candidate, relying on decades of experience and northern influence.
Obi, with strong support from young people and southern voters, believes the candidate should come from the South to maintain regional balance. This debate over zoning, North or South, could break the coalition before it even makes any meaningful headway.
These tensions are felt across Nigeria. In Kaduna, some prefer Atiku’s experience but worry about conflict with Obi’s followers. In cities like Port Harcourt and Awka, many young people view Obi as a reformer and dismiss Atiku as old-school.
The addition of other political heavyweights like Mark, Secondus, El-Rufai, Aregbesola, Malami and Amaechi complicates things. Each has followers and personal goals, fuelling early signs of internal power struggles.
There is speculation that El-Rufai is seeking one final prominent role in public service before retiring from politics, while Amaechi’s infkuence, having served as a legislator, governor, and minister for 24 consecutive years, could shape ticket negotiations. The coalition must find a way to accommodate these figures without falling apart.
Meanwhile, both the PDP and Labour Party are in trouble. The PDP is further weakened by high-profile defections. In states like Yobe, Gombe, Borno, Adamawa, and Katsina, some of its founding members have joined the ADC, even as PDP leaders downplay the impact.
The Labour Party, once boosted by Obi’s 2023 campaign, is also facing a crisis. Some “Obidient” supporters plan to follow him to the ADC, but others feel let down, disillusioned by his looming departure.
The ADC is reshaping the political map, but whether it can succeed depends on how well it handles internal friction and earns public trust.
A Looming Test of Unity
Picture a national convention in 2026, perhaps in Abuja or Osun, where the ADC unveils its plans and picks a presidential candidate. Thousands waving green and white flags, chanting for a ‘new Nigeria.’
Atiku may speak about reviving the economy and northern pride, while Obi could excite the crowd with promises of youth empowerment, transparency, and compassionate governance.
Flanked by Mark, Aregbesola, Secondus, and others, the stage would project unity. Yet, this hypothetical event, still a possibility as of today, could become a defining moment, either cementing the ADC’s credibility or exposing its fault lines. Such a national convention would test the alliance’s cohesion.
Behind the scenes, tensions over who gets the presidential ticket are heating up. This prompted ADC leaders to tell members not to declare any ambitions publicly until party structures are firmly in place.
An ADC source close to Atiku’s camp told Saturday Vanguard: “We’re pushing for a northern candidate. Our argument is that we need a candidate with a strategic edge in 2027. We believe key states in the North-East and North-West, like Adamawa, Yobe, Katsina, Kaduna, and Sokoto, where Atiku has deep roots, are critical to winning. It’s not just about his ambition, it’s about numbers.
“It is a necessity to counter the APC’s strongholds, but Obi’s camp doesn’t see it that way yet, and it’s a source of concern. If this spills into the open during the national convention by 2026, it could undermine the coalition’s momentum.”
Another party source close to Obi’s team had a different view: “Obi’s 2023 campaign showed he can mobilise millions, especially young voters and southerners. His base in the South-East and South-South is unmatched, and his appeal reaches urban youth nationwide. We’re arguing that Obi as the candidate maximises our chances against Tinubu, who’s facing backlash over economic issues like fuel prices.
“A northern ticket risks alienating the youth and southern voters, and we’re subtly pressing the ADC leadership to prioritise Obi’s momentum. The zoning debate is a ticking time bomb, and we need a resolution before any major public event such as a national convention,” he also told Saturday Vanguard.
Public affairs analyst Dr Joseph Iorapuu issued a warning: “A national convention would be a litmus test for the ADC. Nigerians are desperate for an alternative to the APC, but they won’t back a coalition that’s visibly divided. The zoning debate is legitimate, but it’s also a trap, if Atiku and Obi let it dominate, they’ll lose public trust.
“The APC is ready to exploit any misstep, flooding the media with narratives of chaos and portraying Tinubu as the steady hand. The ADC must show discipline and a clear vision to convince voters it’s not just another elite pact.”
Any slip-up at such an event, even a careless comment, could trigger a backlash. On social media, hashtags would quickly trend, either boosting or damaging the ADC’s image.
For many Nigerians, this event would be a turning point. They want to believe in the ADC, but they also want clarity and unity from its leaders.
Navigating a Fragile Path
If such a major rally takes place, the ADC would have to face some tough decisions. Atiku and Obi might agree to a compromise, possibly with Obi as the candidate and Atiku as a ‘grand patron’ influencing policy and appointments behind the scenes.
The insider close to Atiku’s camp further explained: “We recognise Obi’s youth appeal as a major asset, especially in urban areas and the South. We may be open to letting Obi lead the ticket, but only if Atiku is guaranteed significant influence in the administration or in shaping the economic agenda, should the ticket succeed at the polls.
“If it happens, it will be a tough compromise because Atiku believes his experience and northern networks are the backbone of the coalition. However, the bigger challenge is managing figures like El-Rufai and Amaechi, who feel entitled to influence. If they’re sidelined, they could destabilise the coalition, or even consider returning to the APC.”
Meanwhile, another ADC chieftain shared this view: “Obi’s camp is adamant that he should lead the ticket. His grassroots momentum is the ADC’s strongest weapon against Tinubu’s political machine. We’re open to offering Atiku a powerful role, but we must acknowledge that the youth and southern voters won’t support a northern candidate until the South has had its full 8-year turn at the presidency.”
Asked about how to handle other leaders like El-Rufai and Amaechi, he said: “It’s tricky. These people you mentioned are political heavyweights, but not really the centrepiece for 2027. We’re working within the coalition to avoid a public split, but we know it’s not going to be an easy ride.”
Dr Joseph Iorapuu further shared what he believes will be the APC’s response.
He told Saturday Vanguard, “Tinubu’s team will seize on any ADC disunity. They’ll launch a media blitz including ads, social media campaigns, and rallies, portraying Tinubu as the steady leader who delivered projects like the Lagos-Calabar highway, even if economic reforms are unpopular.
The ADC needs a unified ticket and a clear message to counter this, but any internal fights would become a liability. Voters want hope, but they also crave stability, and the APC knows how to exploit that dynamic.”
Even if the coalition reaches a truce, tensions will remain. The zoning debate might be postponed with a public message of ‘national unity,’ but underlying conflicts will continue.
The APC is expected to go on the offensive, highlighting Tinubu’s achievements; from infrastructure projects in Abuja under FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, to road construction led by the Minister of Works, Dave Umahi, and innovations introduced by Interior Minister Tunji Ojo and Aviation Minister Festus Keyamo. The efforts of National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu, which have brought some improvement in the fight against insurgents and bandits in the North, along with various economic reforms, will also be used to strengthen Tinubu’s image.
The PDP and Labour Party will find it hard to stay relevant. The PDP hopes to rebuild after its upcoming elective convention, but more defections, especially from the North, are weakening it. The Labour Party, without Obi’s star power, risks becoming irrelevant, with some supporters moving to the ADC and others withdrawing from politics altogether.
The ADC’s biggest task is to bring its leaders together and deliver a message that speaks to Nigerians everywhere, especially about the daily struggles, rising fuel prices and joblessness, that shape their lives.
A Future Shrouded in Uncertainty
As 2027 approaches, the ADC is at a critical point. Its ability to challenge Tinubu’s re-election depends on three key things: unity, strategy, and public trust.
The Atiku-Obi alliance is a bold move to unite opposition forces, but internal tensions could tear it apart. If it can stay disciplined, the ADC might become Nigeria’s main opposition force, even overtaking the PDP and Labour Party.
Recent remarks by party leaders reflect the difficulty of this mission. Speaking at a stakeholders’ meeting with the Kogi State chapter in Abuja on Tuesday Interim National Chairman David Mark said: “The ADC has no preferred or favourite presidential aspirant. We have set out to first build a platform that would be attractive and acceptable to the majority of Nigerians.
“We are doing this because we do not want this great ship called Nigeria to sink. If we don’t rise now, they will sink all of us. I don’t own this party more than any other member, and I urge everyone to prepare to show Nigerians that ADC is a different party, a party ready to run democracy properly in this country.”
Mark was responding to concerns raised by former ADC presidential candidate Dumebi Kachikwu, who accused the party of favouring Atiku. The party is trying to reassure members that it remains transparent despite these internal tensions.
Similarly, Salihu Lukman, a senior ADC figure and former APC Vice Chairman, spoke on Channels TV’s The Morning Show, urging aspirants to focus on building the party rather than chasing personal ambitions.
He said: “Let me be very clear on this, there is no discussion about the question of presidential candidate in the coalition up to this moment. And our position is basically, whoever, and that is the first test of whether we’ll be different from the existing parties or not, whoever will be the candidate of the ADC must win the primary. It’s the first test of whether those aspiring are, in the first place, democrats or not. And this is the issue we are engaging all of them.
“And the other test, which we are putting to all of them is that their ambitions must go beyond their personal expectations. It has to factor the reality facing the country. They have to come ready to be able to make the needed sacrifice to move this country forward. I think that the suspension of the expression of ambition has to continue. I can see some leaders have already become hyper-reactive.”
Lukman’s call to suspend ambition declarations is part of the ADC’s plan to avoid early divisions, a mistake the opposition made in 2023. He also stressed the need for unity and warned that a divided opposition would hand victory to Tinubu again in 2027.
These statements reflect the delicate balance the ADC is trying to maintain. The party’s insistence on fair primaries, echoed by both Mark and Lukman, is meant to ease fears among Obi’s ‘Obidient’ supporters, who are wary of any favouritism toward Atiku.
Lukman has also reached out directly to ‘Obidients,’ calling the ADC their ‘political home,’ as part of efforts to keep them on board and reinforce the party’s democratic image.
But the push to delay ambition declarations hasn’t gone smoothly. Lukman acknowledged that some leaders are already becoming ‘hyper-reactive,’ showing that tensions among Atiku, Obi, Amaechi and others are bubbling below the surface.
Maintaining discipline will be key, especially with other internal challenges, like legal action from former members such as Dumebi Kachikwu, who accuse the party leadership of misconduct.
Despite criticism over economic issues and controversial appointments, the APC remains a strong force. It still has the advantage of being in power and a loyal support base.
In the end, public perception will be crucial. Young Nigerians, inspired by Obi in 2023, see the ADC as a chance for a fresh start. But many older citizens remain cautious, unsure if this is real change or just recycled politicians in new clothes.
With the cost of living rising and jobs hard to find, voters may turn to the ADC, but only if it shows it can offer a united, credible alternative.
The party’s focus on building solid structures before choosing a candidate, as stressed by Mark and Lukman, is meant to build trust. Still, the journey to 2027 will not be easy.
For now, the ADC represents fragile hope: a coalition born out of urgency, held together by ambition, and tested by growing pressure. Atiku and Obi carry the dreams of millions who want change, but also the burden of proving that change is truly possible.
Vanguard News
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